Trump's conflicting statements sow confusion on Iran ceasefire

President Donald Trump's declaration of a two-week
ceasefire in the war against Iran has soothed global markets. But a series of
conflicting statements and actions since the announcement suggests fundamental
differences remain, making the truce even more fragile.
Trump unleashed a flurry of social
media posts starting in the early hours of yesterday regarding the Strait of
Hormuz, Iran's nuclear material, tariffs, sanctions and the negotiating
parameters of a long-term peace deal. Several of his messages contained dubious
or incomplete claims.
Most crucially, Trump insisted on
Tuesday that any ceasefire would depend on the reopening of the strait, which
accounts for a fifth of the world's oil supplies. But that waterway remained
effectively closed yesterday (8 April).
At the same time, fighting continued with Kuwait's army
saying an "intense" barrage of Iranian attack drones caused
significant damage to energy, power and water desalination facilities.
Trump's initial post announcing the
deal only specified that attacks on Iran should stop, leaving open the question
about the other front of the war in Lebanon, where Israeli forces are fighting
Tehran-backed Hezbollah militants. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said on Wednesday he insisted the ceasefire not apply to
Lebanon, an understanding at odds with that of Iran and mediator Pakistan.
Israel's attacks on Lebanon
prompted Tehran to threaten to pull out of the deal if they continued,
according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Only on Wednesday morning did
Trump clarify his stance that Lebanon was not covered. He brushed aside
concerns that would blow up the deal, saying in a telephone interview with PBS
"that'll get taken care of too. It's alright."
Those were just some of the more
glaring contradictions on the morning after the Tuesday evening deal mediated
by Pakistan, which came after the president threatened to wipe out Iranian
civilization. It showed the perils of Trump's negotiation-by-social media post
approach to foreign affairs ahead of talks scheduled for this weekend in
Islamabad.
"These two weeks will probably be fraught," said Dennis Ross,
former President Bill Clinton's envoy to the Middle East, who is now a fellow
at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "It's also important to
ask questions about what kind of promises have been made on each side."
Investors still saw the
developments as a reprieve. US stocks rallied and oil dipped below $95 a barrel
in Wednesday trading.
In some ways, the truce mirrors the
Trump administration's earlier efforts to secure an end to fighting in the Gaza
Strip between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas militants.
That deal, which also involved
Netanyahu's forces continuing airstrikes after the ceasefire came into
effect similarly captured the world's attention amid hopes for an end to the
violence. But like with the current Iran ceasefire, it also left core details
and disagreements between long-time enemies to be dealt with at a future date
and in war-torn Gaza, where many still live in tents, that approach hobbled progress.
Violence doesn't necessarily mean a
fragile peace deal is finished. Additional attacks can occur ahead of and
immediately after a ceasefire announcement, as both sides seek last-minute
advantages. And truces, including a 2024 deal between Israel and Lebanon can
see near-daily violations while still largely holding.
Yet Trump's statements in the wake
of the truce have caused additional confusion as to what exactly both sides
have agreed to or are negotiating about.
Trump also shifted his stance
Wednesday on the points the US and Iran will negotiate over in forthcoming
talks. He cast the 15-point US proposal as a basis for talks, and not
Tehran's 10-point list that both countries had pointed to as a
starting point the night earlier. That list included provisions including
Iranian control of Hormuz and the right to uranium enrichment clear red lines
for Washington.
Trump and his administration later
lashed out at media reporting about Iran's 10-point plan, and Trump on
Wednesday insisted the US plan would form the basis for talks. "Many of
the 15 points have already been agreed to," he said, though Iran had
previously rejected them.
On Wednesday, White House Press
Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters the original Iranian
proposal was "fundamentally unserious, unacceptable and completely
discarded it was literally thrown in the garbage" by Trump and US
negotiators. "The idea that President Trump would ever accept an Iranian
wish-list as a deal is completely absurd," she said.
Just 24 hours after Trump
threatened Iran with apocalyptic destruction, he offered to work with Tehran to
"remove" its nuclear material and also suggested a joint venture to
collect tolls on ships transiting Hormuz. It's far from clear if Tehran, other
countries in the region or Asian and European nations that rely on energy
shipments from the Persian Gulf would agree to such US plans.
He also insisted Iran had
"gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change," even
though the country's theocratic leadership structure remains in place.
In an effort to curb Iran's
military might, he threatened to impose 50% tariffs on goods from countries
supplying it with weaponry. There's one problem: the US Supreme Court's
decision knocking down his old tariff regime drastically curbed his ability to
quickly apply duties himself.
















