Myanmar’s coup could trigger an international crisis
The generals who
have staged a coup in Myanmar claim they intend to impose a state of emergency
for one year.
This would be a
disaster not only for Myanmar, but also for the region.
A robust
international effort is therefore required immediately to try to ensure that
repressive laws are repealed and all political prisoners are released
unconditionally.
The military’s role
in Myanmar’s affairs goes far beyond security and defense. The UN has said the
military campaign against the Rohingya included mass killing, rape, and arson,
and was carried out with “genocidal intent.”
In 2017, more than
730,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh; fear of the army is preventing their
return. If the military tightens control, it would only further Rohingya misery
and increase the pressure on their patient hosts.
Bangladesh and
Myanmar’s other neighbors have a lot to lose from the outcome of the coup, but
they cannot act alone to overturn it.
A robust and
coordinated international response is required. This should include a global
arms embargo, agreed through the Permanent Security Council of the United
Nations.
The UK already has
its own arms embargo, and White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has said the US
“will take action against those responsible” if the military’s moves are not
soon reversed.
China has previously
opposed international intervention in Myanmar.
However, China has
urged all sides to resolve their differences, so behind the scenes, it needs to
warn the coup leaders of the crisis they have created.
If the military doesn’t budge, the US, UK, and the EU should quickly impose sanctions on Myanmar. This would have a big impact on its economy. A similar military coup in Thailand in 2014 stalled social and economic progress for years.
Since the coup, the
military has tried to silence the press and shut down debate. This is typical
of authoritarians who lack legitimacy and support.
Given both the
security situation and the health risks linked to Covid, it is dangerous for
international correspondents to get inside Myanmar to see what is happening.
However, there is
nothing wrong with concerned individuals, organizations, and governments
speaking out. We know from past experience that the military does sometimes bow
to pressure. Indeed, Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest following
an international campaign.
She is once again
being held on trumped up charges. Admittedly, her role in the Rohingya crisis
has tarnished her reputation, but she still should be freed and treated as an
elected leader.
Min Aung Hlaing is
not the people’s choice. He has miscalculated by seizing power. He has put
himself and his nation at risk. Now is the time for the international community
to make that clear to him.
(Duncan Bartlett is the Editor, Asian Affairs, and a Research Associate at SOAS China Institute, University of London.)
(Source: Dhaka Tribune)