World to spend $157 billion on Covid-19 vaccines through 2025 - report
Total global spending on
Covid-19 vaccines is projected to reach $157 billion by 2025, driven by mass
vaccination programs underway and "booster shots" expected every two
years, according to a report by US health data company IQVIA Holdings Inc
released on Thursday.
IQVIA, which provides data and
analytics for the healthcare industry, said it expects the first wave of
Covid-19 vaccinations to reach about 70% of the world's population by the end
of 2022. Booster shots are likely to follow initial vaccinations every two
years, the report said, based on current data on the duration of effect of the
vaccines.
The United States is preparing
for the possibility that a booster shot will be needed between nine to 12
months after people receive their first full inoculations against Covid-19, a
White House official said earlier this month. Pfizer Inc has also said boosters
may be needed within 12 months.
Vaccine spending is expected to
be highest this year at $54 billion with massive vaccination campaigns underway
around the world. It is expected to decrease after that eventually to $11
billion in 2025, as increased competition and vaccine volumes drive down
prices, said Murray Aitken, a senior vice president at IQVIA.
The forecast for such meteoric
growth in sales for a new class of drugs or vaccines is unmatched, but
reminiscent of the $130 billion spent on the new hepatitis C cures between 2014
to 2020 due to pent up demand, Aitken said in an interview.
The spending forecast for
Covid-19 vaccines represents 2% of the roughly $7 trillion forecast for all
prescription medicines during that time period, IQVIA said.
Excluding the cost of Covid-19
vaccines, overall medicine spending is forecast to be $68 billion lower over
the six years from 2020 to 2025 than it would have been without the pandemic,
according to the report.
The pandemic caused major
disruptions to doctor visits, procedures and medicine use, leading to some
stockpiling in the early days for some medications and then a return to a more
normal trend, the report said.
"While Covid-19 vaccines
will cost $157 billion over the next five years," Aitken said, "that
is a very small price to pay relative to the human cost of the pandemic."