Rubio faces tough task of selling Iran reset to wary Gulf allies

Highlights:
- Top US diplomat to meet with
partners concerned about elements of Iran deal
- $300 billion reconstruction
package, broader US-Iran reset particularly contentious for Sunni Gulf
leaders
- Rubio needs to defend deal
while assuaging allies' concerns
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces a delicate mission
this week pitching Washington's Iran peace deal to Gulf Arab leaders who fear
excessive concessions will strengthen Tehran and reshape the region's security
balance and oil flows.
Rubio will meet them in the United Arab Emirates
on Tuesday, before travelling to Kuwait and Bahrain, where he will meet
officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council, a grouping of monarchies that also
includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman.
At issue are elements
of a draft agreement that include no limits on Iran's ballistic missiles, a
proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund and provisions that could expand
Tehran's regional influence and control over critical oil shipping lanes.
All six GCC nations are strategic US allies that
offered some degree of logistical support to Washington during the US-Israeli war
with Iran that began four months ago and all were buffeted by Iranian
airstrikes as a result.
Some of those countries are feeling privately
disappointed – and surprised – by an interim deal that could open the door to
US normalisation with Iran, a predominantly Shi'ite country that most Sunni GCC
states consider their main adversary.
The opinions of these nations matter to US
policymakers.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain
all host US military bases that in turn make up the backbone of America's
security architecture in the Middle East. Should any of those countries rethink
their security relationship with the US, even in a subtle way, it could have a
significant impact on US military strategy in the region.
For Rubio personally, the trip requires a
balancing act.
While America's top diplomat needs to assuage
regional allies, he must do so without appearing to criticise the US-Iran
memorandum of understanding. President Donald Trump, who signed the accord last
week, remains firmly behind it despite criticism from some of his fellow
Republicans in Congress who have accused the administration of capitulating to
Tehran.
Andrew Peek, a former deputy assistant secretary
of state for Iraq and Iran who served on Trump's National Security Council
during both his terms, argued that Rubio could reassure any nervous allies by
pointing out that Trump has a history of being tough on the Islamic Republic.
"I think you can just remind them that the
president has conducted extremely hawkish policies toward Iran – and if this
MoU falls through, he will have no compunction about going back to striking
them," said Peek, who is now at the Atlantic Council think tank.
Peace – but at what cost?
Leaders from all GCC countries hosting Rubio or
present at this week's talks at least publicly pushed for a diplomatic solution
before the war kicked off in February. Most also pushed for a diplomatic
off-ramp during the conflict, even as they in practice facilitated the US war
effort.
Still, the specific terms of the MoU privately
shocked regional officials, according to analysts and diplomats.
One concern relates to ballistic missiles.
Throughout the war, the Trump administration said that destroying Iran's
ballistic missile capacity was a central goal. That objective aligned with the
interests of the Sunni Gulf states as – unlike the US – all are well within
Iran's ballistic range and have been targeted by Iranian missiles.
The MoU, however, does not mention Iranian
missiles at all, and Trump himself has in recent days said that denying Tehran
such weapons would be "unfair".
The MoU also foresees a $300 billion
reconstruction fund for Tehran, which regional neighbours fear could allow the
Islamic Republic to build up its military capacity, while increasing support
for regional proxy groups that could destabilise governments throughout the
region.
Bahrain's mainly Sunni leadership, in
particular, is concerned that a well-funded Iran could foment an uprising among
the island nation's mainly Shi'ite populace, analysts say. During the Arab
Spring, the nation of roughly 1.65 million was the site of massive recurring
street protests.
Iran has denied any covert attempts to stoke
unrest but has publicly expressed support for Bahraini Shi'ite activists in the
past.
The accord, as written, also appears to concede
that Iran could have a key role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz going
forward, a major concern for Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which rely on the
strait to export oil and gas.
More broadly, US officials have begun speaking
about a broader reset for Tehran, a potential transformation that most GCC
states are wary of. On Saturday, Vice President JD Vance said the US was
willing to "fundamentally transform" its relationship with Tehran.
"The agreement rehabilitates Tehran's
regime as a regional power," veteran Saudi columnist Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
wrote in Saudi English-language daily Arab News last week.
"Most of the funds Tehran will acquire in
the coming weeks are likely to go primarily towards strengthening the military
position, not to support living conditions or the Iranian economy."
















