Ducsu debacle a rude awakening for BNP

Jatiyatabadi Chhatra Dal's defeat by a huge margin in the Ducsu polls has sent a strong message to the BNP, just five months ahead of the national election, political analysts say.

Chhatra Dal, considered to be one of the major student bodies which had earlier won Ducsu polls in 1990 during the anti-Ershad movement, failed to secure any of the 28 posts in this year's election.

Meanwhile, the Islami Chhatra Shibir-backed panel swept the DU election, winning 23 of 28 posts -- the student body's biggest success since the country's independence.

The analysts say the loss ahead of other major student union elections warrants drastic re-organisation of the JCD, which traditionally plays a vital role during national elections.

"BNP had built strong momentum, but the loss in the Ducsu polls has significantly undercut it. The setback has left many party activists disheartened. The scale of Chhatra Dal's defeat is deeply disappointing."

— A senior BNP leader speaking anonymously

Political observers cited organisational weaknesses, prolonged absence from the campus, the age gap between leaders and general students, and ineffective hall-level campaigning as the key reasons behind the defeat.

"This is not merely a student union election -- it carries a powerful message for the upcoming national polls," said Prof Mojibur Rahman of Dhaka University's Institute of Education and Research.

"General students could not trust BNP and Chhatra Dal. Many believed that if they voted for Chhatra Dal and helped them win, it would ultimately strengthen the BNP -- something they did not want, as the party was already involved in various unethical activities. This fear worked against them."

The Ducsu polls were held after last year's mass uprising that toppled the Awami League regime. With Chhatra League absent from the contest, the biggest beneficiary turned out to be Shibir.

For BNP, the failure of Chhatra Dal not only hurt its image among students but also raised new challenges for the party at the national level, said party leaders and experts.

Political analysts said if BNP fails to take lessons from this defeat, the consequences will be massive in the days ahead.

Prof Al Masud Hasanuzzaman of Jahangirnagar University's government and politics department said, "The Ducsu polls offer a lesson for the BNP. The way the party had been thinking about the upcoming election may now change, prompting them to reflect and prepare accordingly. In this context, the BNP must act with strategic considerations in mind."

The impact of the Ducsu polls will not remain limited to the university; it will spread across the country's political landscape. Jamaat and its student wing have shown that BNP is now their main rival, said both Hasanuzzaman and Mojibur.

Political analysts agreed that Jamaat has gained new momentum, and BNP must pay more attention to this reality.

"The victory of Shibir will infuse huge energy into Jamaat. Of course, this is good news for them. BNP must move forward by considering these matters," Hasanuzzaman added.

The analysts said extortion by party members, business grabbing, and infighting have already put BNP in an image crisis, which was also reflected in the Ducsu polls.

A BNP leader, wishing not to be named, said, "Public perception is very important in politics. The result of the Ducsu election has had a significant impact on people. There is no difference between Chhatra Dal's defeat and BNP's defeat."

Mojibur stated that the result has triggered public reactions, which are likely to influence the upcoming national election.

"Shibir leaders are now in the spotlight after winning Ducsu posts. When the national elections come, they will return to their areas and use their positions to seek votes. This is certain to have an impact on the election," he said.

Two BNP Standing Committee members said they are working to rebuild the party's image by strengthening the organisation and taking action against those involved in controversial activities.

"BNP had built strong momentum, but the loss in the Ducsu polls has significantly undercut it. The setback has left many party activists disheartened. The scale of Chhatra Dal's defeat is deeply disappointing," said a senior leader, requesting anonymity.

Dhaka North City BNP Convener Aminul Haque said, "I think this is a big lesson for the BNP. In the coming days, we will move forward by finding out our organisational weaknesses."

According to Prof Mojibur, BNP's intellectual group is very weak, and the party does not even feel the need to strengthen it.

"BNP and Chhatra Dal talk big and bring out processions, but the results are there for all to see. The party must now focus on strengthening its organisational base."

At a programme in Chattogram, BNP Standing Committee member Mirza Abbas yesterday alleged that Shibir won the Ducsu polls by colluding with the Awami League, whose political activities are banned.

Talking to The Daily Star, another Standing Committee member, Khandaker Mosharraf, insisted that the outcome would have no effects on national polls or politics.