Is there an economic roadmap of the interim government?
The interim
government of Bangladesh has recently completed its six months in office.
Because of certain measures it took at the outset of its tenure, people became
somewhat hopeful about the government's good intentions. But as days passed,
certain things became clearer. First, it became apparent that the government
was not able to solve the problems disrupting the lives of the people. In fact,
it was apparent that the government was severely struggling to cope with those
challenges. The prime example is economy's persistent high inflation. Second,
the mismanagement that characterised the past economy was not over. Thus, an
even economic discipline is yet to return, not to speak of economic
acceleration. Third, the interim government does not have a clear road map to
put the economy on a solid foundation and to steer it forward.
All these
phenomena have created a shaky confidence and a sense of despair in people's
minds, which now have taken the form of discontent. People are at a loss and
cannot fathom that in spite of the presence of so many notable, efficient and
experienced luminaries in the government, it is not able to tackle economic
challenges. People surely do not expect that all the economic problems will be
solved overnight, but they can hope for some improvements and reliefs—at least
by the end of six months. Instead, the efficacy of various policy measures
undertaken by the government has been questioned. For example, what is the
rationale of imposing value-added taxes and supplementary duties on more than
100 items (some essentials were later removed from the list after much
criticism), when there has already been a double-digit inflation and sluggish
growth in the economy? In fact, at various points in time, people quite clearly
expressed that economic issues are the topmost concerns on their minds. Not
only people on the street, but also those closely associated with the government
have started raising their voices about the government's indifference and
ineffective actions on economic issues. People involved with the White Paper
have also expressed their despair. Furthermore, the main political parties of
the country have also expressed some dissatisfaction by the shortcomings of the
government. Given all these, certain issues need to be clarified in the context
of economic programmes of the interim government.
First, there
is no doubt that Bangladesh has been passing through a transition and as a
nation, we have been facing multidimensional challenges—some political, some
are related to public administration, some are economic. While the interim
government is obliged to give attention to all these concerns, a balance must
be maintained in approaching them. But from what is happening, it seems that
the government is not as interested in economic matters as it is in political
issues. As a result, it is not spending much time on economic issues, compared
to the time it devotes to political concerns. The perception seems to be that
reforming the economy is the sole responsibility of the talented and widely
experienced economists at the top of the government. This is, to be honest, a
wrong and not so well-thought approach. If the entire administration of the
interim government is not collectively engaged in economic management, the
economy will not be fixed.
Second, in
addressing and finding solutions for the economic problems, the government must
strongly express its commitment to economic concerns. But unfortunately, the
actions undertaken so far by the interim government are not creating that kind
of a sense. Till now, the government's economic acts give a sense of "some
measures here, some reforms there" sort of disparate attempts, and the
government must move away from such ad hoc approach. In fact, ad hoc measures
provide no relief to the problems, not to speak of solutions. The current high
inflation of the country is a prime example of such a phenomenon. In fact, a
well-coordinated approach is required to overcome economic woes. At the same
time, the interim government must refrain from undertaking inadequate measures,
which in fact, may deepen the crises, making them more complex. Such acts by
the government make its good intentions, commitments and good considerations
irrelevant.
Third, in the economic arena,
the government should concentrate on two specific issues—economic management
and economic reforms. Both of these dimensions will help the Bangladesh economy
to accelerate. In economic management, it is essential to re-establish economic
discipline, the checks and balances of the economic structure, and the culture
of transparency and accountability. During its tenure, the interim government
is neither expected nor supposed to complete all kinds of economic reforms. In
that context, the government has to make a conscious decision as to which
reforms it would prioritise, what would be the context and the content of those
reforms, and also what would be the time frames for those reforms. Many
structural reforms, particularly the long-term economic ones, would have to be
left for an elected government, as those reforms would have constitutional
implications. The economic reforms that the interim government wants to pursue
must be brought to the attention of the people with necessary transparency.
This is critically important, since no reform can be sustainable without the
ownership of the people.
Four, the interim government
should present a well-thought blueprint of its economic plan with a spelled-out
timeframe. In the pursuit of establishing a society, based on human rights and
equality, the major milestones of such a blueprint must also be identified. One
important aspect of the blueprint would be an implementation plan with a
definite monitoring and evaluation framework. For that, a necessary, robust and
credible data set must be mobilised and constructed; so that a good baseline is
created for credible monitoring and evaluation outcomes.
Five, it
should be realised that having eminent, knowledgeable and experienced people at
the top economic leadership of the interim government may be a necessary
condition, but not a sufficient one for solving economic woes. A
personality-based structure, irrespective of how talented these people are in
it, will not produce the desired results. Only if such eminent personalities
are surrounded by skilled professionals and experts of economic discipline, the
desired good outcomes would be achieved. Only a well-knit and coherent team can
collectively tackle the economic problems of the country.
A clearly defined economic roadmap
with a timeframe can strengthen the trust and confidence of the people in the
interim government. And at the same time, this will enhance people's ownership
of the proposed development trajectory of the country and in the ultimate
analysis, there is no alternative to such ownership.
Selim Jahan is director of the Human
Development Report Office and lead author of the Human Development Report.